In a dramatic turn of events at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s quest for the chairpersonship of the African Union Commission (AUC) came to an end. Despite a promising start, Odinga failed to secure the crucial two-thirds majority needed to clinch the prestigious position, leaving Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf to emerge victorious. This defeat raises important questions about Odinga’s future in continental leadership and the evolving dynamics of African politics. In this article, I address the most important reasons why Odinga lost, what his loss means, and what his loss signifies for the future leadership of the African Union.
Raila Odinga’s AUC Chairmanship Ambition
Raila Odinga is no stranger to political contests in Kenya and on the African continent. Having served as Kenya’s Prime Minister between 2008 and 2013 and as the leader of the opposition, Odinga has for a long time been at the epicenter of Kenya’s politics. That he went for the AUC chairpersonship in 2023 was both an ambitious step at a personal level as well as a way of furthering Kenya’s standing in continental diplomacy. The African Union Chairperson has the role of pushing the policy agenda of the Union, brokering conflicts, and representing Africa globally. Based on his political experience and strong international connections, Odinga seemed well-suited for the job.
The chairmanship is a coveted position, which is elected by the Assembly of AU member states to hold office for four years. The position is rotated among Africa’s five regions, with Odinga being the candidate for the Eastern region. The contest for the election was stiff, as there were three aspirants vying for the position: Odinga, Youssouf, and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato. The results of the final election, however, would not be going Odinga’s way.
The Election Process and Odinga’s Defeat
The election, held on Saturday, saw 49 member states participate, with six countries suspended from voting. A candidate must secure 33 votes (two-thirds majority) to win, a threshold that Odinga was unable to meet after several rounds of voting. Initially, Odinga held a steady position, trailing Djibouti’s Youssouf by a narrow margin. Odinga tallied 20 votes in the initial round, as Youssouf garnered 18, and Madagascar’s Randriamandrato received 10. One country abstained, but neither Odinga nor Youssouf could be declared the winner.
As the rounds continued, it became clear that Odinga was not able to garner enough support to defeat Youssouf. Odinga received 22 votes in round two, while Youssouf brought his total to 19. Youssouf had now taken the lead with 23 votes by the third round, while Odinga dropped back to 20. The trend now continued. Youssouf’s votes kept rising, while Odinga’s stayed put, and Odinga was knocked out in the sixth round, beaten by Youssouf 26 to 22 votes.
Youssouf proceeded to the final round, in which he won the 33 votes he needed to secure the chairmanship. The result of the election represented one particular facet of African Union politics—regional blocs, political horse-trading, and the influence of swing voting groups. Odinga’s loss may be part of a broader trend of split support, and African countries perhaps tending towards continuity or solidarity with other regional leaders instead of a more fundamental change.
Why Did Odinga Lose?
There are several reasons why Odinga lost. First, one cannot underestimate the strength of regional blocs in African Union elections. Despite his high-profile political career, Odinga was given a run for his money by Youssouf, who enjoyed the support of his home region, the Horn of Africa. Political alliances between African countries are usually the decider in such elections, and Odinga’s campaign may not have had the endorsement of powerful regions.
First, the AUC chairperson position is not just about personal merit but also about strategic alignment. African Union politics are complex, and Odinga’s loss can be partly attributed to the failure to secure the right coalitions and regional support. In addition, Odinga’s long history with Kenyan politics, which has been characterized by both popularity and vehement opposition, may have worked to make his candidacy appear more polarizing than that of Youssouf, who presented himself as a uniting force.
Finally, procedural elements of the actual election also played a role. As the rounds continued, it was apparent that Odinga was not able to garner sufficient support either from smaller states or from those who possessed competing interests. Not being able to make an inroad in the initial rounds thus placed him in a precarious situation and he was not able to keep up with the strong and growing momentum of Youssouf’s campaign.
What Does This Mean for Odinga’s Future?
Despite Odinga’s failure to secure AUC chairpersonship, the loss does not signal the end of his political life. Far from it, Odinga’s political legacy as one of the most significant leaders in Kenyan and African politics remains in check. The loss, however, may force him to rethink strategy if he is to assume a leadership role in Africa once more in the future. Although failed in this attempt, Odinga’s political influence remains significant. His involvement in the race could position him as a precious intermediary in African diplomatic efforts down the line, or even as a leader for other pan-African projects.
This defeat also highlights the ongoing challenge of the African Union to unify the continent. Politics within Africa remains as divided as ever, and regional agendas still tend to outweigh the aspiration for more continental unity. Odinga’s loss is a reminder of the complexity of African Union politics, in which internal disputes and political maneuvering can determine the outcome of significant leadership ballots.
Raila Odinga’s loss of the African Union Chairmanship race is a significant event, not just for him, but also for the broader orientation of African politics. It speaks of the intricate nature of AU elections, of the power of regional blocs, and the challenge of mobilizing the entire continent behind a common leadership. While Odinga’s defeat is a loss, it will not be the end of life for him, politically. His loss may only be the beginning of a new chapter in his decades-long public service career, with new opportunities waiting for him.
Brian Kabenah Mwaniki is a freelance writer based in Nairobi, Kenya.
Odingas Carriere is finished in Kenya. He brokes his promises and is now a slave of Ruto